FRAMINGHAM
RISK TABLES FOR WOMEN
Age |
20-34 |
35-39 |
40-44 |
45-49 |
50-54 |
55-59 |
60-64 |
65-69 |
70-74 |
75-79 |
Age points |
-7 |
-3 |
0 |
3 |
6 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
TC <160 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
160-199 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
200-239 |
8 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
240-279 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
>280 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
Nonsmoker |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Smoker |
9 |
9 |
7 |
7 |
4 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
HDL>60 |
|
|
|
|
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
50-59 |
|
|
|
|
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
40-49 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
<40 |
|
|
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
|
|
BP <120 |
|
|
Untreated |
0 |
|
Treated |
0 |
|
|
|
120-129 |
|
|
Untreated |
1 |
|
Treated |
3 |
|
|
|
130-139 |
|
|
Untreated |
2 |
|
Treated |
4 |
|
|
|
140-159 |
|
|
Untreated |
3 |
|
Treated |
5 |
|
|
|
>160 |
|
|
Untreated |
4 |
|
Treated |
6 |
|
|
|
POINTS (10 yr. Risk of MI or CAD death
%): <9 point = 1%; 9-12
= 1%; 13-14 = 2%;
15 = 3%; 16 = 4%; 17 = 5%; 18 = 6%;
19 = 8%; 19 = 8%; 20 = 11%;
21 = 14%;
22 = 17%; 23 = 22%;
24 = 27%; 25 = >30%
< less than
> greater than
HEART STATS
American Heart Association
For tables of heart disease factors (43
pages—would copy to web page) http://www.americanheart.org/downloadable/heart/1200078608862HS_Stats%202008.final.pdf
Fat consumption is 33% of total calories
with saturated fats being 10.8%. Meat averages 200 pounds per person per year.
Catheterizations 1,322,000 annually,
604,502 hospital discharges, with average stay of 3.6 days. In 05 there were
469,000 coronary artery bypass procedures preformed on 261,000 patients. In 06 2,192 heart transplants, with 24.7 were younger
than 35. 1,265,000 Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCI) (angioplasty). Costs for 04 were for bypass $85,653, PCI $44,110; Catheterization $25,322, pacemaker
$43,101; implantable defibrillator $99,845, endarterectomy $22,037, valves $119,918.
Since 1965 smoking has declined 50%.
Smoking was 43.2% for those with 9-11 years of education and 7.1% for those with more than 16 years. 46,600,000 smokers in 05 (25.9 males and 20.7 females).
From 1997-2001, an estimated 438,000
Americans died each year of smoking-related illnesses, of which 34.7% were from cardiovascular disease. On an average, male smokers
die 13.2 years earlier than nonsmokers and females 14.5 years earlier than female nonsmokers. Smoking caused 3.3 million years of lost for men, and 2.2 million for women. Cigarette smoking results in a two-to-three-fold risk of dying from coronary heart disease. Use of tobacco products in 2004 was 31.4% for whites, 11.7% for Asians, 23.3% for Latinos.
In 2005 106,700,000 had total cholesterol
of 200 mg/dL (age 20 and older), or 48%, and for above 240 mg/dL, 37,200,000 or 17%.
Overweight children 2-5 years 10.3%
were overweight in 04; 6-11 years increased from 4% in 71 to 17.5% in 04. ADULTS,
142,000,000 were overweight (73M males, and 69M females) which is 66% of adult population, of which 31.4% were obese BMI of
30 or greater). Diabetes mortality in 04 was 225,400, which is 2-4 times higher
than those without diabetes. Lifetime risk of stroke goes from 1.8 to 6%.
High blood pressure in 05, 73M (1
in 3 adults), (33.4M men, 39M women) untreated systolic pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, or diastolic pressure of 90 mm HG
or higher. This results in a 1.5 times greater rate of heart disease and a 4.2 times rate of end-stage kidney disease. Elder women (over 75) have an 83.8 incidence and men a 69.5% incidence
of HBP.
CORONARY HEART DISEASE (CHD): in 05 was 16M of which 8.7M were men and 7.3M women and there were 770,000 new coronary
attacks and 430,000 recurrent attacks, and another 190,000 silent first heart attacks.
Of these 600,000 were new myocardial infarctions (MI), and 320,000 recurrent.
Average age of first attack is 64.5 for men and 70.4 for women. The
lifetime risk of developing CHD after the age of 40 is 49% for men and 32% for women. CHD in women lags behind men by 10 years and 20
for the more serious evens such as MI and sudden death. CHD
causes 1 in 5 deaths (451,326 in 04). Of those who experience a coronary attack
in a given year, 38% will die during the following 12 months.
Of those who die from CHD, 82% are over the age of 65. Overall CHD death rates decreased by 59% from 1950 to 1999 (see note
at bottom for reason). Non-sudden CHD death
decreased by 64%, and sudden by 49%. Alabama
has the worst death rate fro CHD of 364.2, California
is ranked 28th with 276.4, Hawaii 3rd with 230.4, and
Minnesota 1st with 211.1.
From Wikipedia.org: About one half the smokers will die of illnesses due to smoking. A
world-wide a billion people this century will die this century from the health consequences of tobacco. 1,205 US citizen a day die from tobacco
related illnesses, of which the main forms are diseases of the cardiovascular system.
Incidence of impotence is 85% higher in male smokers. Lung cancer, which
was rare before 1900, will afflict 10% of smokers, yet only 1.33% of non-smokers—of whom half of this number is attributed
to second-hand smoke. All forms of cancer are increased by smoking; for example, pancreatic cancer by 250%. .
For a delightful 1922 brochure by Dr Kellogg (of cereal fame) on tobacco http://healthfully.org/tobacco/id8.html
Big PhARMA claims that it is the drugs
which prolong life, but rather it is the reduction in cardiovascular disease, and this is attributed in the main to the reduction
in the smoking rate—whose major impact upon the stats takes 20 years. Smoking
reached a high of 59% of the male and 46% percent of the female adult population in the early 50s. It currently is at 27 & 22% respectively (MORE PROOF THAT WOMEN ARE
SMARTER THEN MEN).
Coronary death rate U.S. 2003
Women |
|
AGE
|
|
Men |
21 |
|
0-19 |
|
23 |
51 |
|
20-29 |
|
110 |
300 |
|
30-39 |
|
889 |
1,538 |
|
40-49 |
|
4,767 |
3,857 |
|
50-59 |
|
11,240 |
7,989 |
|
60-69 |
|
16,117 |
17,997 |
|
70-79 |
|
24,082 |
49,294 |
|
80 + |
|
32,282 |
Annual
death rate from coronary heart disease U.S. is 500,000. The 10-ounce heart beats 100,000 per
day and pumps blood through 60,000 miles of blood vessels.
Placing
a stent (angioplasty) in artery takes about 30 minutes.
Genetic
factor MEF2A codes for a protein that makes up part of the cell’s membrane. When
mutated the risk factor for coronary is over 95%.
Other
genes are being found, such as apoE4, which is involved in arterial inflammation. There
is a mechanism whereby to deal with arterial inflammation plaque forms in affected areas.
This mechanism is mediated by white blood cells. Vioxx and all the COX-2 inhibitors except aspirin block the part of this mechanism which
switches off the plaque formation.
Sudden
death from heart attack, without significant prior symptoms, occurs in 59% of men and 64% of women.
Coronary
artery walls are about a millimeter thick and flex about 70 times a minute as the heart pumps.
It is thus tough to get a clear image of how occluded. An angiography
(where a die is injected into the blood vessel, can only show how much blood is flowing through the artery, and not the plaque
embedded in the wall. Computed tomography (CT) scanner (a 3-dimensional x-ray
machine) can produce striking images, however, it is too risky, and costly for standard screening.
Risk Factors
Factor |
Results |
|
Poor ratio of LDL to HDL |
4x |
|
Diabetes |
4x women |
2x men |
Hypertension |
2x women |
3x men |
Stress & depression* |
3x |
3x |
Healthy diet |
- 30% |
|
Abdominal obesity |
2x |
|
Lack of exercise |
+ 20% |
|
Smoking long term |
2x (1 pack) |
|
|
|
|
- Psychological factors do not directly affect the heart, but rather have
an impact on lifestyle or for some are associated with increased blood pressure.
THE
CHOLESTEROL PROCESS:
1.
Cholesterol in the bloodstream
infiltrates the arterial wall
2.
Immune system dispatches
macrophages to consume the cholesterol. The bloated macrophages become foam cells.
3.
Foam cells accumulate
to become a major component of the plaque.
4.
To keep the arterial
walls slick and smooth muscle cells form a cap.
5.
Foam cells in the plaque
secrete chemicals that weaken the cap.
6.
When the cap cracks,
plaque seeps into the bloodstream, and can form a clot which can block the flow of blood.
7.
Inflammation process
is believed to soften the plaque.
Those who have a financial interest in the outcome manipulate the results, Major study finds that all 37 journal articles positive effects over stated; the average was 32%. Statins cause erectile
dysfunction, cognitive imparement, and cancer.
Lipitor (2011) lifetime sales $131
billion, tops all drugs. Plavix at
$60 billion is second.
STATINS CANCER Link
52% short term
LA Times, Health section, July 21, 2008 -- excerpts
Vytorin, the
combination drug (simvastatin (better known by its commercial name Zocor) and ezetimibe--known as Zetia) prescribed to lower
cholesterol, sustained another blow today, when the author of a major clinical trial announced that the medication had failed
to drive down hospitalization and death due to heart failure in patients with narrowing of the aortic valve. In the process,
researchers in Norway detected a significant blip in cancers in the 1,800 subjects they followed
Today's findings
suggested something more ominous: the incidence of cancer -- and of dying of cancer -- was significantly higher in the patients
taking Vytorin. Altogether, 67 patients on placebo developed cancer during the trial.
Among subjects on Vytorin, 102 developed cancers of various kinds.* This
is the second adverse press—the first being in March 08, when the ENHANCE trial found that Vytorin fared no better than
a placebo at reducing plaque buildup on the walls of patients' arteries.* *
Comments
by jk
Simvastatin (Zocor) is off patent. Thus in a scramble for profits a combination drug (on patent) was introduced. Direct to consumer market cost $155 in 07—mainly TV ads.
*
The pressing issue is that since the development of Statins, the very
first animal studies in the 60s it has been known that Statins increase the incidents of cancer. However, nearly all studies done thereafter have not included cancer.
*
Several studies have failed to find a reduction in the build of plaque, even thought the statins including Zocor, reduce
LDL and cholesterol. Few studies include the
principle reason for taking a statin, namely a reduction in the death rate. Claims
for such reduction probably entail a failure to control the contravening variable, aspirin usage. Given a pile of evidence, including the very mechanism of plaque formation, which involves inflammation
process, I must conclude that the use of statins is highly suspect. Given the
harm done including cognitive impairment, weakness, and cancer, if my skepticism is born out, the harm done by statins as
a course of treatment will far surpass that of VIOXX which killed over 200,000 people world wide by accelerating atherosclerosis.
EXTENDED RELEASE NIACIN IS A SAFER, AND A MORE EFFECTIVE WAY TO LOWER
MI RISK!
|